Voters Don't Understand EU Fiscal Treaty

With just six weeks to go until the Irish public vote on the new EU fiscal compact treaty, most say they don't really understand it.

A survey conducted by the Sunday Times newspaper found 32% do not understand it "at all", while a further 23% do not it understand it particularly well. 27% said they understand the treaty to some extent, 12% "quite well" and 6% very well.

The survey found that 42% are likely to vote in favor of ratifying the treaty, 27% are against and 32% don't know.

When undecided voters are excluded it leaves a 62% Yes vote.

"Based on these figures, particularly the high level of undecided voters, the referendum has yet to be won or lost," said pollster Ian McShane from Behaviors and Attitudes.

"If the vote becomes a referendum on the hardship and austerity imposed on Ireland by the EU through the bailout program then, given the prevailing mood of the electorate, it will be defeated."

The compact requires countries to virtually eliminate structural deficits, creates an "automatic correction mechanism" and enshrines the new measures in national law.

The treaty also provides for tighter control of tax and spending by governments.

The results mean will worry Enda Kenny's government, who are campaigning for a Yes vote.

"If Ireland remained outside the new arrangements, we would be the only euro area country to do so; although we would not be pushed from the euro, we would marginalize ourselves," the Taoiseach said.

Unlike with previous EU treaties, Ireland does not have a veto over the fiscal compact.

The treaty can progress when 12 countries ratify it regardless of whether or not it's supported by other countries in the Eurozone.

"There can be no question of preventing others from moving ahead without it, and the train will leave on January 1st next year," Mr Kenny added.

The government is planning to send a copy of the Treaty to every house in the country.

Ireland's Congress of Trade Unions will decide this week whether or not to ask it's members to support the treaty, although the body's general secretary David Begg has indicated that he is inclined to back it, albeit reluctantly.

The biggest trade union in Ireland, SIPTU said it will support it if the government agrees to an economic stimulus plan.

It said a "one-sided austerity approach at the expense of working people, will not work."

But two leading trade unions have asked their members to vote against the treaty and campaign for its defeat.

UNITE and MANDATE both said the treaty would lock down Irish economic activity and shrink domestic demand.

Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton, who is leading Labour's campaign in favor of the treaty, described the position taken by Mandate on the treaty as "disappointing".

"The national debate on the Stability Treaty is only now getting under way, and it would have been preferable to have a discussion on the pros and cons of this treaty before taking a position," she said.