SF Win Donegal By-Election As Pressure Mounts On Cowen

Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty has won the Donegal South West by-election, piling further pressure on Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his government.

The result puts the passing of next week's crucial Budget vote in jeopardy.

It was a bruising election defeat for Fianna Fail - the party's share of the vote in the constituency collapsed from 51% at the last general election in 2007 to just 21% this time around.

And it capped a dramatic week in Irish politics, which had begun with the Green Party announcing that they will pull out of Government once the laws enacting the Budget were passed in January.

It sparked a major political crisis, which almost brought down the government straight away.

There were calls from within his own party for Taoiseach Brian Cowen to resign as Fianna Fail leader.

And two independent TDs, on whose support the government are now depending, indicated they may not vote with the FF-Green coalition any longer.

Opposition parties demanded an immediate election.

By midweek, Brian Cowen had weathered the storm, but only by promising an election early in the New Year and stressing the importance of concluding the IMF/EU negotiations, publishing the four year plan and passing the budget.

The result of the Donegal South West by-election was not a surprise.

Pearse Doherty had been well ahead in the polls and had performed much better than most of the other candidates in media interviews during the campaign.

And although he is likely to be a sitting TD for just a matter of weeks, it seems inconceivable that he will not be re-elected again in the New Year.

The Donegal seat had been vacant since FF's Pat "The Cope" Gallagher was elected to the European Parliament in June 2009.

Mr Doherty took a High Court case to force the government to call the election - a move which he believed was vindicated by the result.

"This is the election the government never wanted to happen," he told his cheering supporters in his victory speech, "and maybe the result will tell you why."

Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams, who recently announced his intention to contest for a Dail seat in Louth at the next election, was standing by Doherty's side as he gave the speech.

Following the victory, Sinn Fein is now seeking to join forces with two independent TDs - Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan - to form a "technical grouping" in the Dail.

This would allow them more speaking time, and also make it possible for the party to move a motion of no confidence in the government.

Although it would be unlikely to pass, it will further increase pressure on the government in the run-up to the Budget.

The Dail arithmetic is complicated at the moment, with three seats still vacant (Jim McDaid, George Lee and Martin Cullen) but the government currently has a working majority of just two.

Fianna Fail has 70 TDs. Three more FF TDs - Mattie McGrath, Eamon Scanlon and

Jimmy Devins - are outside the party whip, but usually vote with the government. That brings the numbers to 73.

Six Green Party TDs and Mary Harney bring the figure to 80.

Two independents - Michael Lowry and Jackie-Healy Rae - make it 82.

The Opposition has 51 Fine Gael TDs, 20 Labour, and (now) five Sinn Fein, which adds up to 76.

There are two socialist independents - Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan - bringing it to 78.

Former PD Noel Grealish and former FF TD Joe Behan would bring that to 80 if they voted against the government as they have done previously.

Even if they abstained, should Jackie Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry vote against the budget, as they have indicated they are likely to do, the government would be depending on the casting vote of the Ceann Comhairle to get it through.

Given that the budget will contain cuts and tax increases of €6bn, it is highly possible that some backbench Fianna Fail TDs, with an election looming, might break ranks.

In these circumstances, some members of Government have been making overtures towards Fine Gael, about achieving a consensus on the budget.

"It is time for us to pull together as a people and do so in a united way," Taoiseach Brian Cowen said, announcing his four year economic plan.

But Fine Gael and Labour said they had no intention of giving the government a blank cheque, or "buying into" a budget they don't believe in.

The government says it's confident it does have the numbers to pass the budget.

But reports from last week's Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting suggest that things are far from harmonious within the party.

There were calls from some backbench TDs ("the usual suspects" according to one Minister) for Brian Cowen to resign as leader.

One of them, Sean Power, claimed he had been assured by Mr Cowen that he would resign as leader after the budget.

That claim was angrily denied by the Taoiseach, who insists he will lead the party into the next election.

And there are reports of fractious relations around the cabinet table too.

Justice Minister Dermot Ahern and several other senior ministers were seething that they had been sent out to deny as "fiction" that talks were taking place on an IMF bailout, when officials were engaged in discussions.

They hit out at Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and Taoiseach Brian Cowen for "hanging him out to dry" and not keeping them informed of the quickly evolving situation.

And of course, there are huge tensions between Fianna Fail Ministers and Green Party Ministers, following the junior partner's decision to effectively call time on the government.

Fianna Fail ministers have said they were "annoyed" by the timing of the Green's announcement.

By any standards, it has been an extraordinary week in Irish politics.

There is now a widespread belief that Brian Cowen's days are numbered, both as leader of Fianna Fail and as Taoiseach.

There will be a general election early in the New Year, if not in January then almost certainly in February.

Even if the budget passes, most observers believe there will be a leadership challenge in the Fianna Fail party over Christmas, or early in January.

All parties are now on an election footing.

And in that heightened atmosphere, is taking place, the negotiation of our economic future.