Scary Prospect Of Lisbon Treaty Vote No. 3?

The nightmare of another Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland reared its ugly head over the Halloween weekend.

EU leaders have agreed to revisit the Lisbon Treaty in order to put in place a permanent rescue fund for countries in debt troubles.

The idea is to protect the euro, and avoid another Greek-style budget crisis.

The current €440 billion EU emergency rescue fund is due to expire in 2013.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel succeeded in convincing the 27 leaders at last week's summit to mandate Brussels to see how a crisis mechanism can be made permanent.

But the move could result in a third referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland.

The Treaty only came into effect 11 months ago, after a decade of hard negotiations, and two referendums in Ireland.

If the tweaks being discussed involve transferring significant new powers to Brussels, it will require a public vote in Ireland.

The Irish public initially voted against the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, following a referendum campaign dominated by issues not even in the document.

A second referendum was held one year later, in which there was a 20% swing to the Yes side, thanks in small part to guarantees on certain issues secured from the EU, and in large part to the downturn in the economy.

People felt it was better to be at the heart of negotiations in Europe, rather than being the "bad boy" holding up reforms.

But the economic arguments may not work in a third referendum - several senior and respected economists have argued that it is Ireland's membership of the Euro that has limited its ability to respond to the economic crisis.

Ireland cannot change interest rates or devalue its currency - two tools normally available to countries in such dire financial straits.

Another demand from Germany, supported by France, that countries who break budget deficit rules should have their EU voting rights suspended, has been put on the back burner for now.

That demand was staunchly opposed by Taoiseach Brian Cowen, and the leaders of several other countries.

Such a measure would definitely spark a referendum in Ireland, and almost certainly lead to its defeat.