Cowen Hangs To Power By A Thread

The survival of the Irish government is in doubt, after two TDs threatened to withdraw their support on the issue of health service spending cuts.

The numbers are complicated - but essentially Brian Cowen depends on the support of four Fianna Fail TDs who are now outside the party whip, and a number of Independents for survival as Taoiseach.

Last Friday, Independent Galway TD Noel Grealish, a former member of the now defunct Progressive Democrats party, said the government could no longer depend on his support.

He insisted he was not trying to bring down the Taoiseach, but said he wanted clarification on health spending in the West of Ireland.

"I've taken a stance on this," he said, "I've said it publicly all along that I would find it difficult to support a Government if these cuts are implemented."

Mr Grealish said it would be wrong for him to sit on the government benches when the Dáil resumes on Wednesday, if he did not get a commitment that health spending in his area would be protected.

"I will not be supporting the Government from next Wednesday onwards until I'm assured that there will be an adequate service and that patient safety will be protected at all costs," he said.

But Health Minister Mary Harney, his former party leader in the PDs, ruled out any special arrangement for Mr Grealish.

"There is no deal - there can be no deal. Patients are my number one priority," she said.

Mr Grealish's decision to break ranks could spark similar demands from other vulnerable TDs, who would like to be seen as standing up for constituents against government cutbacks.

Over the weekend, Fianna Fail TD Mattie McGrath said he would not support the government unless hospital cuts in his Tipperary constituency were reversed.

Mr McGrath voted against the government in June on the issue of stag hunting, and has been outside the party whip since then.

However, he continued to vote with the government on every other issue.

The removal of acute services at South Tipperary General Hosptial in Clonmel is being considered as part of the reconfiguration of health services in the south east of the country.

"I'm a member of the Oireachtas and I haven't a clue what is going on on this either," he said, "If the process isn't reined in and there isn't an open, honest interaction with all parties concerned, then the Government will not have my support."

The threat from the two TDs comes as two separate opinion polls show Fianna Fail facing a disastrous election.

One of the polls showed the Labour Party in a position to become the biggest party in the country for the first time ever.

The other shows Fine Gael as the biggest party.

But both polls showed Fianna Fail would lose at least 30 seats if an election was called tomorrow.

And in the Sunday Business Post/Red C poll, only 19% of people expressed confidence in Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Mr Cowen is still dealing with the fall-out from his disastrous "hangover" radio interview following his party conference in Galway two weeks ago.

After apologizing for his below-par performance in the Morning Ireland interview, Mr Cowen held a joint press conference on the steps of Government Buildings with his finance Minister Brian Lenihan last week.

Mr Lenihan is seen as king-maker in Fianna Fail -polls show him to be the public's favourite to replace Mr Cowen.

But Mr Lenihan is battling cancer, and has shown no interest in launching a leadership bid at the present time.

The show of unity put an end to more than a week of controversy surrounding the "hangover" interview.

But there are still murmurings of unrest within the Fianna Fail party.

Meanwhile, with the public is bracing itself for a fourth tough budget in three years - including more than €3bn euro in cuts - it remains to be seen if other TDs will break ranks ahead before December.

The Dáil arithmetic is complicated by the fact that three seats remain vacant, with bye-elections expected to be held in Spring.

Fianna Fail currently has 70 out of the 163 seats.

There are also four Fianna Fail TDs outside the parliamentary party who consistently vote with the government.

Mary Harney and the six Green TDs make a coalition with 81 votes.

The three opposition parties have 75 seats between them - Fine Gael has 51, Labour 20 and Sinn Féin 4.

There are six Independents, the majority of whom usually support the Government.

Two of them - Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae - have warned Fianna Fail that if they jettison Mr Cowen as leader, then their continued support would not be guaranteed.

But if Noel Grealish and Mattie McGrath follow-through on their threats not to support the government, it will leave the coalition with a slim majority, and utterly dependent on FF rebels and independents.

Were the government to lose all three bye-elections next Spring as looks likely, its Dáil position could be untenable.

The junior partner in government, the Greens, have held steady to date, but they too must also be considering the political dangers of supporting such an unpopular government for too long.

Polls show them facing an electoral wipe-out also.

However, the saving grace for Mr Cowen and his colleagues at the moment appears to be the fact that turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

And with Fianna Fail backbenchers and Greens all facing losing their seat if there was a snap election, it's unlikely that they would want to pull the plug on the government for now.