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Tuesday August 20, 2008

Who Really Won In Georgia

With the impending end of hostilities, at least for the moment, in Georgia, it is now time to work out who really came out on top as a result.

While the Russians certainly won the ground battle (it would have been difficult for them to do otherwise, given their overwhelming advantage in numbers), they fared worse at sea, in the air and most especially in the diplomatic realm.

Both former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact members, for long wary of their Russian neighbor, rushed to declare their solidarity with the Georgians, the Presidents of the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine rushing to Tbilisi showed quite how seriously they treated the conflict.

They also took concrete action in the face of Russian aggression.

The Poles, long seeking an agreement from the US to base a US-manned Patriot missile battery near Warsaw as part of an overall deal on the new missile defence shield, finally secured Americans agreement.

Ukraine, long ambivalent to the Russians, declared new restrictions on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, based in Sevastopol, as a result of their aggressive action against Georgia's navy, and announced that former Russian radar and early warning sites would be made available to the West.

Russia also may pay a price in economic and prestige terms with talk of ejecting them from the G-8 group and delaying their application to join the World Trade Organization.

Their decision to delay their implementation of the ceasefire - as late as Tuesday they were reported to have taken Georgian hostages and still occupied parts of Gori) may also lead to further action against them, with NATO declaring that there would be no business as usual" between them.

The statement from the Alliance expressed concern at "continuing reports of Russia's deliberate destruction of civilian infrastructure," continuing that, "Russian military action has been disproportionate and inconsistent with its peacekeeping role."

It urged Russia "to take immediate action to withdraw its troops from the areas it is supposed to leave."

"The alliance is considering seriously the implications of Russia's actions for the NATO-Russia relationship.

"We have determined that we cannot continue with business as usual."

Russia, a former Super Power that wants to reestablish it's "Great Nation" status needs to understand that it will not do so as a pariah, treating its neighbors with contempt.

Only by taking its place with the democracies of the world will Russia be able to successfully play its part in world affairs. Any other course will risk containment and damage to its fragile economy as customers for its resources look elsewhere.

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