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2019 Central Bank Warns Taoiseach Says Removing Backstop Is As

19th, Bad For Ireland As No-Deal Brexit

June Of 110,000 Fewer

| Jobs In Event Of
EXAMINER No-Deal Brexit

IRISH

Leo Varadkar has said removing the border backstop
would be as bad for Ireland as a no-deal Brexit.
Some contenders to replace Theresa May as British Prime
Minister, including front runner Boris Johnson, have pro-
posed changes to the policy.
The EU has said the Withdrawal Agreement – including
the backstop – is not up for renegotiation.
The Taoiseach told RTE’s Marian Finucane program:
“It’s a legal guarantee and legally operable guarantee that
we will never see a hard border again.
“The difficulties we have with a time limit is effectively
you are saying there will or could be a hard border once that
time limit expires – that isn’t a backstop.
“What we are open to, and always have been open to, is
alternative arrangements that perhaps could avoid a hard
border, through procedures and technologies and so on.
“What we expect – and I don’t think it’s unreasonable –
we want to see that fleshed out, we want to see it exist, it
d i s o r d e r l y n o - we’re expecting economic be frank about the loss of demonstrated before we are willing to give up the back-
deal Brexit would growth of 4.25% this year, output he expected to see in stop.”
Aresult in 110,000 3.5% next year. the event of the UK crashing Mrs May’s erstwhile Democratic Unionist Party backers
fewer jobs in Ireland, “So we would still expect out of the EU. are adamant they cannot support any EU withdrawal deal
the Central Bank has some modest positive “What are we facing as an which includes a backstop with no time limit.
warned. growth in a no-deal scenario economy and a society in The Taoiseach added: “What people are saying is ‘give up
Mark Cassidy, director of but essentially it would the event of a no-deal the backstop’ – which we know will work legally and oper-
economics and statistics at knock almost all of the Brexit?” Mr Nash asked. ationally – in return for something that doesn’t yet exist but
the bank, said the effect of growth off in the first cou- “The reality is that, might exist in the future.
the UK crashing out of the ple of years.” whether we like it or not, “I can’t do that to the border communities.”
EU would be severe and Over the medium-term, given the political climate in Some Conservatives are concerned anything that keeps
result in a permanent loss of Mr Cassidy said he believed Britain at the moment we the UK tied to Europe after Brexit may hinder the ability to
economic output. output would be lowered by could very well be staring strike trade deals with other countries.
He said if a deal could be over 6% compared to a no- down the barrel of a no-deal An extension to the period before the UK leaves the EU
secured, the negative effects deal scenario. Brexit.” ends in the autumn.
of Brexit could be “con- “We think there would Independent senator Mr Johnson has claimed it is “perfectly realistic” to rene-
tained”. be 110,000 fewer jobs com- Gerard Craughwell said he gotiate the Withdrawal Agreement to allow the UK to leave
But he said the impact of pared to a situation where could not see any way in in October. C
a disorderly, no-deal sce- there had been no Brexit, so which an open border could
nario would “have very the effects are immediate,” be maintained in the event Climate Action Plan Very Demanding
severe and immediate dis- he concluded. of a hard Brexit. On Farmers, Say IFA
ruptive effects with conse- In comparison, Mr “I cannot see a way, any-
quences for almost all areas Cassidy said if a deal similar way, that we can have an The Irish Farmers’ Association has said the Climate
of economic activity”. to the Withdrawal open border,” he said. Action Plan is very demanding on farmers.
“Compared to a situation Agreement could be “I’ve never been able to Under the new proposals, there’ll be a push for farmers to
where the UK remains a EU reached, then the Central see it, nobody has ever reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
member, our estimates sug- Bank expected output explained to me how to It also includes measures aimed at helping them improve
gest that a disorderly Brexit would be 1.75% less than have an open border with a their livestock and land management.
would result in a substantial predicted and it would third country in particular if IFA President Joe Healy said Irish farmers are already
and permanent loss of out- result in 20,000 fewer jobs. there’s a hard crash out.” among the best performers globally when it comes reducing
put,” he told an Oireachtas Mr Cassidy made the He added: “All we need is emissions.
committee. comments during an one carcass of beef to finish He said: “Over the past 30 years we’ve increased our out-
Mr Cassidy added: “We appearance at the Seanad up in Berlin or Paris that is put by 40% while flatlining our emissions from the target.
think that the disorderly, Special Select Committee not true Irish beef that has “If you go back to 1990 we were at similar levels of emis-
no-deal scenario could On The Withdrawal Of The something like angel dust in sions now, even though we’ve increased our output by
knock about four percent- UK From The EU on it and our entire market col- about 40%.
age points off economic Wednesday in response to lapses in Europe which is “We are recognized as the most carbon efficient produc-
growth in the first year Labour Party senator Ged about 60% of our beef mar- ers of dairy product in Europe and that’s by the European
alone. Nash, who asked the ket. So that’s a very serious Commission Joint Research Center and we’re in the top five
“To put that in context, Central Bank economist to concern.” C in beef production.” C